The Iran-US conflict has entered a critical phase, with the US and Israel continuing their attacks for a fourth day. Tehran has responded with retaliatory strikes against US allies and bases across the Gulf, escalating tensions and raising concerns about the potential for further escalation. The situation is complex and multifaceted, with various players and interests at play. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the key developments and insights:
US and Israel's Fourth Day of Attacks
The US and Israel have been attacking Iran for four days, with Tehran retaliating against US allies and bases. The conflict has expanded, with Israeli military strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and IDF soldiers operating in the south of the country. The US embassy in Riyadh was also struck by drones overnight, resulting in a 'limited' fire.
The Hardest Hits are Yet to Come
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that the 'hardest hits are yet to come.' Donald Trump has said the attacks will probably last four to five weeks. The conflict has already caused significant economic disruption, with gas prices in the UK soaring to a three-year high and oil prices hitting a 13-month high after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route.
Iran's Decentralized Command Structure
The death of Iran's supreme leader hasn't hampered its response to US-Israeli aggression, according to an expert. Dr Bader Mousa Al-Saif, associate fellow at Chatham House, suggests that Iran's command structure has become more decentralized since the direct attacks and spike in assassinations. This has allowed Iran to continue its activities without being significantly impacted by the loss of its supreme leader.
RAF Base in Cyprus Feels Quiet After Drone Attacks
The RAF base in Cyprus, which houses US forces, has been quiet after two Iranian drone attacks in recent days. The damage was limited, and the base's defenses are being reinforced with the deployment of fighter jets and ships from Athens. Family members of personnel stationed at the base have been relocated for their safety.
Israel Completes Wave of Strikes Against Hezbollah Targets in Beirut
Israel has completed a wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Communication sites used by the militant group were among the targets struck. The latest images from Beirut show dark plumes of smoke rising from piles of rubble in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in the city.
Gas Prices Soar to Three-Year High
Gas prices in the UK have soared 93% since the start of the Iran war, reaching a three-year high. The conflict has affected markets and spooked traders and investors. Prices briefly hit 151 pence a therm, a level not seen since February 2023.
Regime Change in Iran is Unlikely, According to Former UK Ambassador
Regime change in Iran is possible but not likely, according to a former British ambassador to Iran. Sir Simon Gass, who represented Britain in Tehran from 2009 to 2011, notes that the Iranian regime is 'pretty resilient' after 45 years in power. He predicts the conflict will draw to a close in days or weeks, not months, given the rising pressure on Donald Trump from surging gas prices and his under-fire allies in the region.
Lebanese Army Withdraws After Israeli Incursions Along Border
The Lebanese army has pulled out of at least seven positions along the border as the Israeli military moves in. Lebanese officials have confirmed that Israeli forces are carrying out incursions along some parts of the border. The Israeli Defence Forces announced its soldiers were 'operating' in southern Lebanon a little over an hour ago.
How Cyprus Became a Target in Iran Conflict
The UK military base in Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, was hit in a drone strike on Sunday night. The Mediterranean island has been drawn into the conflict due to Iran's strategy of attacking across the region to put pressure on America from its allies around the region to bring the conflict to an end.
Could War Destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Israel has opened up a new front in the conflict with Iran in the past 48 hours with strikes against the Iran-backed Hezbollah military group in Lebanon and troops operating in the south of the country. The attacks have significant implications for citizens just over the border in northern Israel.
Explosions in Two Iranian Cities on Fourth Day of Strikes
Iran's Mehr news agency is reporting explosions have been heard in the Iranian cities of Isfahan and Shiraz. Both cities have been targeted by strikes over the past four days. Isfahan, in central Iran, is the country's third-most populous city, after Tehran and Mashhad. It's also home to some of Iran's nuclear facilities. Shiraz is the fifth-most-populous city of Iran and the capital of its Fars province.
